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In 2018, the demand for cement will be reduced first, and he

  From January to December 2018, the country’s fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was635.36 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year. The growth rate was flat from January to November, down 1.3 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.1%.

  Among the three major types of investment, the growth rate of infrastructure investment

  continued to rise in December, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment was unchanged

  from the previous month, and the growth rate of real estate investment was somewhat adjusted.

  In terms of regions, the high growth rate of infrastructure investment in the eastern and central

  regions is relatively stable, while the north and west regions have rebounded under the low base

  effect. We continue to be optimistic about the 19-year rural construction and construction projects

  in the eastern and central regions. The growth rate of real estate development investment

  continued to fall. The growth rate slowed down for five consecutive months. The land premium

  rate continued to decline. This was mainly due to the cautious land acquisition by developers and

  the low land prices. The growth rate of investment slowed down due to the slowdown in the

  growth rate of the land auction. Or will become a high profitability event. At the same time, the

  new construction area of the house increased by 17.2% from January to December, and the growth

  rate increased. The cumulative growth rate of the completed area decreased sharply by 4.5

  percentage. We believe that the 19-year completion area will increase in the low base and the

  completion period. Continue to pick up. In December, the sales area and sales growth rate of

  housing enterprise continued to slow down, and the marginal improvement brought by the city’s

  policy was worth looking forward to.

  The infrastructure is accelerating, and the cement demand in 2019 does not have to be

  excessively pessimistic. The supply-side policy continued to advance: infrastructure investment


  Since 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission has accelerated the

  approval of projects and increased the scale of local debt (the National People’s Congress has

  authorized the State Council to issue 1.39 trillion yuan of local debt in advance in 2019, which

  accounts for about 63% of the new debt limit last year). After the approval, the Ministry of Finance

  will further give it to the localities. We will judge that there will be structural opportunities in area

  with strong demand for cement infrastructure next year, such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the

  marginal improvement brought about by the infrastructure subsidy policy in the northwest region

  is worth looking forward to.

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