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  Prospects for the New Year of Cement: The Logic Sublima

  Clinker 2019 low season low is basically established: We believe that the low price of off-season clinker in the eastern part of 2019 Quarter 1 has been basically proved, which is significantly higher than that of the same period of last year; although the cement price may fall seasonally, the low point may still be significantly higher than that of last spring. The bottom of the price; the establishment of the low season is expected to change the market’s previous pessimistic expectations for the full-year profit curve. In addition, from the perspective of supply, the differentiation of cement and steel price trends in the fourth quarter of 2018 is the best interpretation of the trend of commodities with different attributes and patterns when the policy of environmental protection changes across the board, and we judge the environmental protection and peaks of the cement industry in the east in 2019. The scope of the region will be expected to expand further, and from the perspective of new capacity, there is no suspense in 2019. We judge that the pressure on new capacity is similar in 2018 and is concentrated in the western provinces.

  The sublimation of “region is better than the whole country”, the demand certainty in the developed areas of East China and Central South China has increased year-on-year, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will further contribute flexibility: we judge that the overall funding pressure in 2019 is expected to ease in 2019. At the same time, after the National General Meeting in July 2018, the direction of the infrastructure subsidy board was clear, and the key projects represented by the central government plus leverage (mainly in the direction of rail transit and railway) and economically developed provinces (Beijing represented by Xiong’an) The Jinji area, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region have the strongest certainty in infrastructure investment and are expected to support the bottom economy. The real estate performance in December 2018 exceeded expectations, investment and construction were at a relatively high level, and the completion of the project was obviously rising. We judged that the demand for real estate in 2019 will be the revitalization of the land “dead inventory”. It is expected that the real estate investment in 519 will be 5-10% growth, overall demand may be better than market expectations, especially in the core cities, so we judge East China South China and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 2019 demand is still certain.

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